A Probabilistic Decision-Support Framework for Contract Duration Assessment in Repetitive Construction Projects Using Integrated Line of Balance and PERT
Keywords:
Repetitive Construction Projects, Program Evaluation and Review Technique, PERT Activity, Optimistic Duration, Pessimistic Duration, Most Likely Duration, Expected Duration, Critical Path, and SoftwareAbstract
Uncertainty in activity durations presents a major challenge to construction project management, particularly when assessing the probability of completing repetitive construction projects within contractual deadlines. To address this challenge, the present study develops an integrated computational framework that combines the Line of Balance (LOB) scheduling technique, accommodating both single-crew and multiple-crew configurations, with the probabilistic principles of the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). The proposed framework is implemented through a newly developed Java-based application, designated the Repetitive-Projects Evaluation and Review Technique (RPERT). By incorporating three-point duration estimates—optimistic, most likely and pessimistic—for recurring activities, RPERT enables planners to quantify expected project completion probabilities while maintaining compatibility with conventional scheduling calculations. The software architecture comprises four interconnected functional modules: user interface, database, execution and data processing. A comprehensive illustrative case study is employed to evaluate the proposed system, demonstrating its computational accuracy, practical feasibility and methodological validity. The findings establish RPERT as a reliable decision-support tool for incorporating duration uncertainty into repetitive construction scheduling and facilitating probability-based assessments of contractual completion targets.
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